The market has been setting new highs, with multiple stocks taking turns to hit the daily limit rise, and recently, the secondary market of the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) has been very hot.

Last Friday (October 25), the BSE 50 Index continued to set a new high, closing at 1259.26 points, up 0.08%. The daily transaction volume of the BSE exceeded 50 billion yuan for the first time, with a total transaction volume of 590.3 billion yuan for 254 stocks. The transaction volume for the week from the 21st to the 25th exceeded 234.6 billion yuan, an increase of about 118% compared to the previous week.

What are the reasons for this round of market rise in the BSE? Zhou Yunnan, the founder of Beijing Nanshan Investment, told Yicai that the hot market is driven by multiple factors, including the gradual clarification of BSE policy expectations, recent regulatory statements conveying a more positive signal for deepening reforms, and the recovery of market sentiment and liquidity.

Looking at the longer timeline, since the "9·24" market started more than a month ago, the BSE 50 Index has accumulated a rise of 109.96%, leading the main market indexes. In terms of individual stocks, Airong Software has gained ten times during this period, becoming the "leader" of this round of market.

Advertisement

After a round of hot market, will the BSE market fall back after rising? What are the opportunities and risks in the future market? Industry insiders believe that BSE stocks have risen as a whole in the early stage, and there may be fluctuations in the short and medium term.

The daily transaction volume has repeatedly broken 40 billion yuan.

Last week (October 21-25), the market continued to rebound, and the Shanghai Composite Index once attacked 3300 points, while the BSE secondary market went out of an independent market.

On the 21st of the week, the BSE 50 rose by 16.24% in a single day, closing at 1255.32 points, and the closing position set a historical high.

After that, the index continued to rise after a short adjustment, with both the 23rd and 24th trading days rising by more than 4%. On the 25th, the BSE 50 once rose by more than 10%, reaching 1389.01 points in the day, but fell back in the afternoon, closing at 1259.26 points, up 0.08%, and continued to set a new high.

"The trend of the 25th (BSE) marks the market's divergence after setting a new high." Zhou Yunnan believes that the intraday pullback on that day was caused by factors such as the return of profit-taking positions.From an overall weekly perspective, according to disclosures from the Beijing Stock Exchange (North Exchange), during the week of October 21st to 25th, all 254 stocks listed on the North Exchange accumulated a total transaction volume of 13.965 billion shares, an increase of 78.55% compared to the previous week; the total transaction value reached 234.607 billion yuan, an increase of 117.79% compared to the previous week.

Looking at daily transaction indicators, last week, the North Exchange had four trading days with transaction volumes exceeding 40 billion yuan, with the total transaction value on the 25th reaching as high as 59.03 billion yuan.

In comparison, before the "9.24" market movement, at the beginning of September, the North Exchange's daily transaction volume was around 2 billion yuan, and by the end of last month, the daily transaction volume broke through 10 billion yuan.

How should we view the current market trend on the North Exchange? What are the driving forces behind the market? Zhang Chi, the Chief Strategy Analyst at Guojin Securities, stated that the previous undervaluation of the Northern Securities 50 was due to low attention and trading activity, and under the significant impact of "loose monetary policy," liquidity took the lead, making the North Exchange one of the most benefited directions. At the same time, under the leadership of the demand for a strong technology nation, stocks on the North Exchange align with the current market trend where technology stocks are dominant.

Zhang Chi, combining past market analysis, said that from a capital perspective, due to the low proportion of institutional holdings and the originally low transaction volume, a large influx of funds into the North Exchange has driven an independent market trend, resulting in significant excess returns.

AiRong Software, a tenfold stock, attracted over ten billion yuan in a single week.

Regarding the current market trend on the North Exchange, Zhou Yunnan said, "It is also important to note that after the money-making effect of the North Exchange market is amplified, some stocks with leading gains to a certain extent carry risks."

In this wave of the North Exchange market, which companies have become the "leaders"?

AiRong Software, a tenfold stock, has performed impressively. Looking at the data from the most recent week, from October 21st to 25th, AiRong Software accumulated a transaction value of 11.226 billion yuan, making it the only stock on the North Exchange market that broke through ten billion yuan in a single week.

Other companies with high transaction values last week included Hualing Shares with 8.862 billion yuan, and JiaXian Shares, TianMa New Materials, and HengTuo Open Source, all with transaction values exceeding 4 billion yuan.In terms of trading volume, last week, Liujin Technology accumulated over 400 million shares traded, while Lierda, GuoHang Ocean, Hualing Shares, Haiti New Energy, and Tonghui Information each had more than 200 million shares traded cumulatively.

As a concept stock related to Huawei's HarmonyOS and the strongest "money-drawing" capability, the stock price of Airong Software has been rising continuously over the past month. Data shows that the stock price of this company increased from 9.7 yuan on September 24th to a high of 107 yuan during trading on October 22nd, more than 10 times in just 16 trading days.

Who is buying Airong Software? According to previous reports from First Financial Daily, post-market dragon and tiger list data indicates that from October 18th to 21st, over three trading days, Airong Software's fluctuation deviation value accumulated to 40.77%, with 54.3031 million shares traded and a transaction amount of 4.07 billion yuan.

During this period, the top three brokerage departments that bought the stock were all from the "retail investor stronghold" of Oriental Wealth Securities in the Lhasa area. The first and second brokerage departments on Tuanjie Road, and the second brokerage department on Donghuan Road, bought amounts of 67.779 million yuan, 50.3047 million yuan, and 48.316 million yuan, respectively.

It is worth mentioning that recently, several stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange have disclosed risk warning announcements. Since October, Hualing Shares has disclosed three stock trading abnormal fluctuation announcements, the most recent one on October 23rd, stating that the company's stock closing price fluctuation deviation value from October 22nd to 23rd accumulated to 50%.

Hualing Shares stated that the recent short-term increase in the company's stock price is significant and deviates from the market trend, posing a risk of overheated market sentiment. However, there have been no significant changes in the company's fundamentals, nor are there any significant undisclosed information.

Recently, Tianma New Materials, Airong Software, and others have also disclosed relevant risk warning announcements.

The sustainability of the rise still depends on the repair of the fundamentals.After the index has repeatedly hit new highs, the market is highly concerned about how the secondary market of the Beijing Stock Exchange (North Exchange) will proceed next.

"The core of the upcoming market trend depends on the changes in transaction volume, as volume determines the price, that is, the changes in the index," said Zhou Yunnan, who believes that if the daily transaction volume of the North Exchange can still be maintained at the level of 30 billion yuan, the market will still contain significant opportunities.

Zhu Haibin, General Manager of the North Exchange Research Center at Open Source Securities, analyzed that the individual stocks of the North Exchange have generally surged in the earlier stage, and in the short to medium term, there may be fluctuations and repetitions. Some companies that have recently seen significant increases and rapid rises may have already reflected the growth in performance and changes in fundamentals, and caution is needed.

Zhang Chi believes that the proportion of North Exchange stocks in institutional portfolios is still relatively low, and there is still room for improvement in the future. However, he also stated that the fundamentals of North Exchange stocks are still weak, and the sustainability of the rise still depends on the repair of the fundamentals.

"After the continuous efforts of monetary and fiscal policies, we still need to wait for the inflection point of the fundamentals to arrive for sustainability," Zhang Chi analyzed, stating that under the current drive of liquidity, the valuation level of North Exchange stocks has been significantly repaired, but there is still room for improvement compared to the STAR 50 index.

Yu Wei, an expert at the Economic Development Working Committee of the China Xiaokang Construction Research Association, told reporters that for the opportunities in the North Exchange market, investors can shift their focus from popular concept themes to merger and reorganization themes, especially those of state-owned enterprises.

"At the company level, some companies that have not accumulated high increases before, have small circulating market values, and have not yet significantly increased transaction volumes, have a certain room for growth," Yu Wei said.